Prediction Market Licence
A real-money prediction market is a betting product almost everywhere outside the US, so it is usually licensed under a betting licence. Gibraltar is the exception, with a dedicated prediction-market authorisation. Outside the US it licenses from about €17,000 a year offshore, live in four to eight weeks; the US is a separate, stricter regime.
What licence does a prediction market need?
A prediction market lets users stake real money on the outcome of an event (an election, a match, a price level, a yes/no question) and pays out on what actually happens. Outside the United States, regulators overwhelmingly treat that as betting: staking money on an uncertain outcome is a wager, whoever the counterparty is. So the authorisation you need is a betting or event-wagering licence, not a special 'prediction market' permit.
Two things make this a live opportunity in 2026. Regulators have begun licensing the model explicitly: Gibraltar brought in a dedicated prediction market authorisation on 13 July 2026, and crypto-native prediction platforms have launched under Anjouan gaming licences. And the sector is booming: election and sports markets have pulled real volume and real scrutiny, so operators who are properly licensed now stand apart from those still in the grey zone.
The route splits the way every gaming product does: crypto-native and fast (Anjouan, Tobique, Tuvalu), banking-first (Curaçao), or a tier-1 credential (Gibraltar). The United States is the exception. A real-money prediction market for US users runs through the CFTC as event contracts, a path we don't file. Everything here is for internationally-facing and crypto-native platforms.
Licence routes for a prediction market
Anjouan, Tobique or Tuvalu — low fees, three to eight weeks, native crypto settlement, 0% gaming tax. Tuvalu's TGA desk confirmed prediction-market coverage in July 2026 with the first operators already licensed. The default first licence for a stablecoin-settled prediction platform serving international users.
Curaçao's reformed CGA betting licence is costlier and slower, but it is the offshore name that fiat acquirers and PSPs recognise best when you need card deposits, not just crypto.
Gibraltar's prediction market authorisation under the Prediction Market Regulations 2026: £30,000 to apply, £100,000 a year and a 0.15% duty on commission, with stablecoin settlement expressly permitted. Selective and substance-heavy, for established, well-capitalised operators.
Prediction-market licence routes compared
| Route | First-year cost | Timeline | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anjouan | from €17,828/yr | 4–8 weeks | Crypto-native, low-cost launch in 4–8 weeks |
| Tobique | €36,000 first year | 4–6 weeks | Crypto-first platforms, fresh regime |
| Tuvalu | ≈ $17,200 (issue & renewal) | 3–4 weeks | Lowest regulator fee on this list; prediction markets confirmed by the TGA desk (Jul 2026) |
| Curaçao (CGA) | €47,450/yr + €4,592 app | 3–6 months | Fiat card deposits, banking recognition |
| Gibraltar | £30k app + £100k/yr + 0.15% of commission | Decision within 6 months of a complete file | Established operators wanting a tier-1 credential |
Prediction market licence requirements
How to get a prediction market licence
- Scope call Your prediction market, target markets, payment mix and budget. We shortlist the licence routes that actually fit and give you an all-in number. Day 1
- Company & structure We set up the licensed entity where the regulator wants it and the operating structure around it, done cleanly so banking doesn't choke later. Week 1–2
- File & evidence KYC on owners, business plan, AML/RG policies, market rules and resolution-source evidence. We assemble the full file and handle every regulator query. Week 2–4
- Licence & rails Licence issued; merchant accounts, PSPs and crypto rails plugged in around it. You launch, we stay on for renewals and compliance. From week 4
Want the shortlist for a prediction market?
Tell us your product, target markets and payment mix — we'll confirm the route that gets you live fastest at the lowest all-in cost, with the number itemised.
How much does a prediction market licence cost?
Figures are the regulators' own schedules and exclude our service fee, which we quote separately and itemised. The US is deliberately absent: a real-money prediction market for US users runs through the CFTC as event contracts (a designated contract market) or a state gaming licence. A separate, US-specific and still-contested path we do not file. The US framework is evolving through 2026; we flag it but do not advise on it.
Where to license a prediction market
Prediction market licence FAQ
Do prediction markets need a gambling licence?
Outside the United States, almost always yes. Staking real money on an uncertain outcome is a wager, and regulators license it as betting or event-wagering — the same family of licence a sportsbook uses. Anjouan, Tobique, Tuvalu (coverage confirmed by the TGA desk, July 2026) and Curaçao cover it under their gaming/betting licences; Gibraltar is the exception, with a dedicated prediction market authorisation under its Prediction Market Regulations 2026. Elsewhere a bespoke 'prediction market licence' isn't a separate product.
Can I run a prediction market for US users offshore?
No. In the US a real-money prediction market is treated as event contracts under the CFTC (operated through a designated contract market) or as gambling under state law. An offshore betting licence does not authorise US users, and you must geo-block the US. The US position is still being litigated in 2026 and federal rules are in flux; we file the offshore routes for international and crypto-native platforms, not the US path.
How much does a prediction-market licence cost, and how long?
The crypto-native floor is from €17,828/yr (Anjouan), live in 4–8 weeks, before company setup and rails. Tobique runs about €36,000 first year; Curaçao €47,450/yr plus application over 3–6 months; Gibraltar is tier-1: a £30,000 application fee, £100,000 a year and a 0.15% duty on commission, with a decision due within six months of a complete application and real substance required.
Which jurisdiction is best for a crypto-settled prediction market?
Anjouan for most launches — low cost, four to eight weeks, native stablecoin settlement and 0% gaming tax, with Tobique and Tuvalu (≈$17,200, 3–4 weeks; prediction-market coverage confirmed by the TGA desk in July 2026) as the crypto-first alternatives. Move to Curaçao when you need fiat card deposits and stronger banking recognition, and add Gibraltar only when a tier-1 credential opens partners or markets that pay for the extra cost and substance.
What does the regulator actually scrutinise on a prediction market?
Beyond standard AML/KYC and responsible-gambling controls, the specific concern is market integrity: how each event is defined and resolved, what your resolution or oracle source is, and how you guard against manipulation and insider outcomes. We build the market-rules and resolution evidence into the file. It's the part generic gaming applications miss.
Licensing something other than a prediction market?
Reviewed by the Vantegris licensing team. This page is general information, not legal advice. Fee schedules and timelines mirror our jurisdiction pages and change when regulators change them.
Start your prediction market licence file.
Tell us the product and we'll map the licence, banking and structure that gets it live. The consultation is free and confidential, and most enquiries get a reply within 24 hours.