Gibraltar's Prediction-Market Authorisation Runs on Stablecoins

On 13 July 2026, Gibraltar brought in a dedicated authorisation for prediction markets. The Prediction Market Regulations 2026, made under the Gambling Act 2025, are written for platforms that trade event contracts, the “will X happen by Y?” instruments that sit awkwardly between a sportsbook and a derivatives exchange. For everyone who has watched prediction markets grow while regulators argued about whether they were gambling, securities or something new, Gibraltar answered by creating a separate category instead of choosing between the existing two. A month later it published the price: £30,000 to apply, £100,000 a year and a 0.15% duty on commission.

There’s a second detail in the text that matters even more to how these businesses actually run: the Regulations expressly allow operators to settle in stablecoins. That design choice is why we are covering it as a licensing and payments story.

What Gibraltar actually built

The clever part is the classification. A prediction market trades standardised contracts that pay out on a defined real-world event, such as an election, a match result or a macro number. In the US, that has meant years of conflict between the CFTC (treating them as derivatives) and gambling regulators (treating them as bets). Gibraltar placed prediction markets under its gambling legislation for supervision, but as their own category. Regulation 4 says prediction-market activity carried on under the Regulations is a distinct activity and is not to be treated as betting, gaming or a lottery solely because of its characteristics. The Licensing Authority grants the authorisation and the Gambling Commissioner supervises.

The financial-services route has not disappeared. A firm with permission under Part 7 of Gibraltar’s Financial Services Act 2019 does not need a prediction market authorisation where its contracts are financial instruments within that permission, though the Authority can apply parts of the Regulations to it after consulting the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission. And a gambling licence holder whose licence covers prediction-market activity does not need a separate authorisation. For a newcomer, though, the authorisation is the purpose-built door. Gibraltar has said openly that it hopes the rules set a European standard, and given how much of the world’s iGaming already runs through the Rock, that ambition isn’t idle.

Contract approval happens at the class level

Most gambling regimes license the operator and then trust it to run compliant products. Gibraltar’s prediction-market regime goes further: an operator must not list a contract unless the Authority has approved it, or it has been certified under arrangements the Authority has approved. Approval applies to the class of contract, not to individual trades. On top of that, the operator must itself be reasonably satisfied that each contract is “clear, capable of objective settlement, not readily susceptible to manipulation and consistent with the regulatory objectives.”

This is the difference between a regulated prediction market and the offshore “bet on anything” platforms that have drawn regulatory fire elsewhere. The manipulation-resistance and objective-settlement tests stop a platform from listing a contract whose outcome an insider can move, or one that settles on a source the operator itself controls. The Regulations also require conflict-of-interest controls over the operator’s own trading, market making and liquidity provision, which matters for platforms that seed their own order books.

The real headline for us: stablecoin settlement is written in

Here is the provision that changes the economics. Regulation 22 says nothing in the Regulations prevents an authorised operator from using digital asset payments, including stablecoins, to fund participant accounts, provide collateral, settle transactions or make payments and withdrawals, and that using them does not, of itself, make the operator or a participant carry on any regulated activity other than prediction-market activity. Regulation 33 then says an authorised operator does not need a separate licence under any other enactment for activity within its authorisation, where that other law would only bite because of the activity’s prediction-market character.

We have written all year about how stablecoin settlement is moving from novelty to infrastructure for high-risk operators: faster cross-border money, no chargebacks on the crypto leg, steadier liquidity. Gibraltar has now built it into a licensing regime from the start. For any operator whose model depends on crypto rails, a framework that treats stablecoin settlement as permitted instead of a second licensing hurdle is a genuinely new option.

The discipline still applies. Operators must hold client money and safeguard it, keep financial resources and a wind-down plan, run AML and sanctions controls, maintain a substantive presence in Gibraltar and get the Authority’s comfort before outsourcing a material function. The Proceeds of Crime Act 2015 was amended to bring authorised prediction-market activity into its scope. A stablecoin rail changes how money settles without reducing compliance duties. And you still need banking behind the crypto: a fiat off-ramp through a regulated EMI or neobank, never a mainstream consumer processor, so the business can pay staff, fees and tax. Our high-risk merchant account guide covers how that fits together.

Who’s in, and what it signals

The Gambling Division’s register lists two authorised operators: Predict Street Limited (PMA01) and Wire Alternative Markets Limited (PMA02). That is a deliberately small, curated start, which suggests Gibraltar is prioritising standards over volume.

The strategic signal is bigger than two operators. Gibraltar is a premium gaming jurisdiction competing with Malta and the Isle of Man for credibility, and it has planted a flag in one of the fastest-growing product categories in the industry, in a way that welcomes crypto rails rather than fencing them out. At £100,000 a year the authorisation is priced for serious platforms, in line with Gibraltar’s other operator fees. If it works, expect other jurisdictions to copy the approach. Our Gibraltar gambling licence guide and Gibraltar DLT licence guide cover the surrounding regime, and where Gibraltar sits against the field is mapped in best gambling licences 2026.

For operators looking at prediction markets seriously, the questions now are practical: does your contract design pass the objective-settlement and manipulation tests, how is your stablecoin settlement structured, and does your banking hold up behind it? We structure the authorisation, the crypto settlement and the fiat rails together as a single plan. If you’re weighing a prediction-market build in Gibraltar, book a free consultation and we’ll map the authorisation, contract approval and settlement stack against your model, with government and service costs shown separately.

Iryna H.

Gaming Licensing at Vantegris

Iryna H. is part of the Vantegris team, which prepares and files licence applications across 40+ jurisdictions. This article was reviewed by Vladyslav S. (Compliance & Legal).

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This article is for general informational purposes only and is not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional before acting.